NMI® at 56.1%; March Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 57.4%; New Orders Index at 59%; Employment Index at 55.9%

TEMPE, Ariz., April 3, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in March for the 110th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 56.1 percent, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the February reading of 59.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 57.4 percent, 7.3 percentage points lower than the February reading of 64.7 percent, reflecting growth for the 116th consecutive month, at a slower rate in March. The New Orders Index registered 59 percent, 6.2 percentage points lower than the reading of 65.2 percent in February. The Employment Index increased 0.7 percentage point in March to 55.9 percent from the February reading of 55.2 percent. The Prices Index increased 4.3 percentage points from the February reading of 54.4 percent to 58.7 percent, indicating that prices increased in March for the 22nd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector’s growth cooled off in March after strong growth in February. Respondents remain mostly optimistic about overall business conditions and the economy. They still have underlying concerns about employment resources and capacity constraints.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in March — listed in order — are: Construction; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries that contracted in March are: Educational Services; and Retail Trade.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Labor is tight and in short supply.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “While we have a slowed down in residential service and install [area], we are still experiencing strength in the new commercial construction area.” (Construction)
  • “Q1 revenue in total on plan or slightly above. Some products slightly below plan. Overall, good start to 2019.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Supply expenses are up commensurately with business conditions as business activity has outpaced the budget on average four to six percent for our fiscal cycle that [began] 7/1/18.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “There is a sense of relief in our industry with the temporary reprieve of the additional tariffs. As of now, we feel this will help us maintain competitive prices and steady margins over the next quarter.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Activity level held flat.” (Mining)
  • “Initial surge in business at the beginning of the year has peaked and settled to a more stable level.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Locally as construction grows, a shortage of available workers for the industry is occurring for future projects.” (Public Administration)
  • “April is when our real busy season begins and it has arrived early this year, demand is quite strong.” (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
  • “Labor, weather and regulatory issues have impacted operations.” (Transportation & Warehousing)

 

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
MARCH 2019

Index

Non-Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Series
Index
Mar

Series
Index
Feb

Percent
Point
Change

 

 

Direction

 

Rate of
Change

 

Trend**
(Months)

Series
Index
Mar

Series
Index
Feb

Percent
Point
Change

NMI®/PMI®

56.1

59.7

-3.6

Growing

Slower

110

55.3

54.2

+1.1

Business Activity/Production

57.4

64.7

-7.3

Growing

Slower

116

55.8

54.8

+1.0

New Orders

59.0

65.2

-6.2

Growing

Slower

116

57.4

55.5

+1.9

Employment

55.9

55.2

+0.7

Growing

Faster

61

57.5

52.3

+5.2

Supplier Deliveries

52.0

53.5

-1.5

Slowing

Slower

39

54.2

54.9

-0.7

Inventories

50.0

51.0

-1.0

Unchanged

From Growing

1

51.8

53.4

-1.6

Prices

58.7

54.4

+4.3

Increasing

Faster

22

54.3

49.4

+4.9

Backlog of Orders

56.5

55.5

+1.0

Growing

Faster

15

50.4

52.3

-1.9

New Export Orders

52.5

55.0

-2.5

Growing

Slower

26

51.7

52.8

-1.1

Imports

51.5

48.5

+3.0

Growing

From Contracting

1

51.1

55.3

-4.2

Inventory Sentiment

62.5

59.0

+3.5

Too High

Faster

261

N/A

N/A

N/A

Customers’ Inventories

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

42.7

39.0

+3.7

Overall Economy

Growing

Slower

116

Non-Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Slower

110

*Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum Products; Construction Subcontractors; Diesel Fuel; Gasoline; Labor (6); Labor — Construction; Labor — Temporary; Paper (2); Paper Products (2); Pharmaceuticals; and Steel Products (18).

Commodities Down in Price
Bacon.

Commodities in Short Supply
Construction Subcontractors (15); Gowns; Helium; Labor (6); Labor — Construction (36); Labor — Temporary (7); Needles & Syringes; Pharmaceuticals; and Truck Deliveries.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

MARCH 2019 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI®
In March, the NMI® registered 56.1 percent, 3.6 percentage points lower than the 59.7 percent registered in February, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 110th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

An NMI® above 48.6 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the March NMI® indicates growth for the 116th consecutive month in the overall economy and expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the 110th consecutive month. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the NMI® and the overall economy indicates that the NMI® for March (56.1 percent) corresponds to a 2.6-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

NMI® HISTORY

Month

NMI®

Month

NMI®

Mar 2019

56.1

Sep 2018

60.8

Feb 2019

59.7

Aug 2018

58.8

Jan 2019

56.7

Jul 2018

56.7

Dec 2018

58.0

Jun 2018

58.7

Nov 2018

60.4

May 2018

58.9

Oct 2018

60.0

Apr 2018

57.2

Average for 12 months – 58.5
High – 60.8
Low – 56.1

Business Activity
ISM®‘s Business Activity Index registered 57.4 percent in March, a decrease of 7.3 percentage points from the February reading of 64.7 percent. This represents growth in business activity for the 116th consecutive month. Twelve industries reported increased business activity. Comments from respondents include: “Some leveling off end of last month and this month” and “Marginally lower, but above budget.”

The 12 industries reporting growth of business activity in March — listed in order — are: Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Public Administration; Mining; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The four industries reporting a decrease in March are: Educational Services; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; and Finance & Insurance.

Business Activity

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Mar 2019

33

52

15

57.4

Feb 2019

39

51

10

64.7

Jan 2019

33

43

24

59.7

Dec 2018

32

50

18

61.2

New Orders
ISM®‘s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index registered 59 percent, a decrease of 6.2 percentage points from the February reading of 65.2 percent. New orders grew in March for the 116th consecutive month, at a substantially slower rate compared with February. Comments from respondents include: “Recovering from the pre buying during tariffs and Chinese New Year” and “Previous month was an abnormally high volume.”

The 12 industries reporting growth of new orders in March — listed in order — are: Other Services; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; and Finance & Insurance. The three industries reporting contraction in March are: Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; and Retail Trade.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Mar 2019

33

53

14

59.0

Feb 2019

38

52

10

65.2

Jan 2019

28

51

21

57.7

Dec 2018

35

50

15

62.7

Employment
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in March for the 61st consecutive month. ISM®‘s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 55.9 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage point from the February reading of 55.2 percent. Twelve industries reported increased employment, and four industries reported decreased employment. Comments from respondents include: “Staffing up as business grows” and “Difficulty recruiting in a full employment environment.”

The 12 industries reporting an increase in employment in March — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; and Other Services. The four industries reporting a reduction in employment in March are: Utilities; Retail Trade; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Mar 2019

25

62

13

55.9

Feb 2019

21

66

13

55.2

Jan 2019

22

65

13

57.8

Dec 2018

26

60

14

56.6

Supplier Deliveries
Supplier deliveries were slower in March for the 39th consecutive month. The index registered 52 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 53.5 percent registered in February. This indicates that deliveries are slowing at slower rate in March as compared with February. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “We are working with our vendors to address backlogs ahead of time before they become an issue. This seems to be working” and “Truck and rail running slow due to weather.”

The nine industries reporting slower deliveries in March — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries reporting faster deliveries in March are: Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Information. Six industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in March as compared to February.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

Index

Mar 2019

9

86

5

52.0

Feb 2019

11

85

4

53.5

Jan 2019

10

83

7

51.5

Dec 2018

13

77

10

51.5

Inventories
ISM®‘s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index is unchanged in March after a month of growth, registering 50 percent, which is 1 percentage point lower than the 51 percent that was reported in February. Of the total respondents in March, 33 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Not adding inventory to meet new orders. All material coming from suppliers” and “Reducing inventory to be more in line with sales.”

The five industries reporting an increase in inventories in March are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. The nine industries reporting a decrease in inventories — listed in order — are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Information; and Retail Trade.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Mar 2019

19

62

19

50.0

Feb 2019

20

62

18

51.0

Jan 2019

22

54

24

49.0

Dec 2018

20

63

17

51.5

Prices
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for materials and services increased in March for the 22nd consecutive month. ISM®‘s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index registered 58.7 percent, 4.3 percentage points higher than the 54.4 percent reported in February. Twenty-one percent of respondents reported higher prices, 77 percent indicated no change in prices paid, and 2 percent of respondents reported lower prices.

Thirteen non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of March, listed in the following order: Other Services; Construction; Information; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The only non-manufacturing industry reporting a decrease in prices paid during the month of March is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Mar 2019

21

77

2

58.7

Feb 2019

18

74

8

54.4

Jan 2019

25

67

8

59.4

Dec 2018

18

74

8

58.0

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
ISM®‘s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index grew in March. The index registered 56.5 percent, which is 1 percentage point higher than the 55.5 percent reported in February. Of the total respondents in March, 37 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The nine industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in March — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Public Administration; Other Services; Construction; and Mining. The five industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in March are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; and Information.

Backlog of Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Mar 2019

22

69

9

56.5

Feb 2019

24

63

13

55.5

Jan 2019

20

65

15

52.5

Dec 2018

20

61

19

50.5

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based personnel grew for the 26th consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 52.5 percent in March which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 55 percent that was reported in February. Of the total respondents in March, 59 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The seven industries reporting an increase in new export orders in March — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries reporting a decrease in exports for the month of March are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Retail Trade; Mining; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

New Export Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Mar 2019

18

69

13

52.5

Feb 2019

17

76

7

55.0

Jan 2019

15

71

14

50.5

Dec 2018

22

75

3

59.5

Imports
The Imports Index grew in March after a month of contraction. The reading of 51.5 percent is 3 percentage points higher than the 48.5 percent reported in February. Fifty-three percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The five industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of March are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The four industries reporting a decrease in imports in the month of March are: Other Services; Construction; Retail Trade; and Wholesale Trade. Seven industries reported no change in imports in March as compared to February.

Imports

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Mar 2019

13

77

10

51.5

Feb 2019

8

81

11

48.5

Jan 2019

12

80

8

52.0

Dec 2018

15

77

8

53.5

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM® Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in March registered 62.5 percent, which is 3.5 percentage points higher than the 59 percent that was reported in February. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are still too high. In March, 27 percent of respondents said their inventories were too high, 2 percent of the respondents said their inventories were too low, and 71 percent said their inventories were about right.

The 11 industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too high in March — listed in order — are: Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Information; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Public Administration; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Mining; Retail Trade; and Finance & Insurance. The only industry reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in March is Transportation & Warehousing.

Inventory Sentiment

%Too
High

%About
Right

%Too
Low

Index

Mar 2019

27

71

2

62.5

Feb 2019

24

70

6

59.0

Jan 2019

26

69

5

60.5

Dec 2018

22

74

4

59.0

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of March 2019.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The NMI® (Non-Manufacturing Index) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

An NMI® above 48.6 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.6 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.6 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management®
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Mastery Model®. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring the April 2019 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Friday, May 3, 2019.

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Contact:

Kristina Cahill

Report On Business® Analyst

ISM®, ROB/Research Manager

Tempe, Arizona

+1 480.455.5910

Email: [email protected]t.org

 

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